Thinking In Bets Pdf Github — !!link!!

For a comprehensive paper-style summary of Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Key Concepts

  1. Resulting – The dangerous habit of equating a bad outcome with a bad decision (and vice versa).
  2. "I'm not sure" – Embracing uncertainty and expressing confidence as probabilities (e.g., "70% sure").
  3. Backcasting & Premortems – Looking forward to imagine failure, then working backward to prevent it.
  4. Decision Groups – Creating a small group to debate decisions openly, reducing self-serving biases.
  5. Tilt – Emotional states that override rational decision-making (borrowed from poker).

Thinking in Bets: A Framework for Decision-Making Under Uncertainty thinking in bets pdf github

  1. Acknowledge uncertainty: Recognize that the future is inherently uncertain and that our predictions are imperfect.
  2. Make better decisions: By considering multiple outcomes and assigning probabilities, we can make more informed choices.
  3. Cultivate a growth mindset: View mistakes as opportunities to learn and improve, rather than as failures.

Step 4: Resulting Journal

Keep a log: Decision → Expected odds → Actual outcome → Lesson learned. After 30 days, review how often luck vs. skill influenced your results. For a comprehensive paper-style summary of Annie Duke's